Shoulder season: the September and October numbers, and what to change.

In short

• In 2025, short-term rentals in the EU booked through Airbnb, Booking or Expedia were rented for 58 million nights in September and October together, 16% more than in August, according to Eurostat.
• Italy, Portugal and Spain had the strongest autumn. In Greece and Croatia, October fell away.
• In September 2026, occupancy across 42 European countries held at 55.4% and the average nightly rate rose 8.9%, while booked nights fell 1.2%, mostly in Spain, where licensing rules have cut supply (AirDNA).
• In 2026, early bookings overstated final results month after month. A strong early pace shows that guests plan earlier, not that more of them will come.
• What to change: autumn photos, a clear line on the pool and what’s open nearby, autumn rates and stay rules set on purpose, and a calendar that stays open at short notice.

Not empty: the official numbers

Eurostat collects figures from Airbnb, Booking and Expedia on the short-term rentals booked through them, by country and month. It counts stays, nights rented and guest nights: a family of four staying three nights is one stay, three nights rented and 12 guest nights. For an owner, nights rented is the figure that matters, so the table uses it.

Across the EU, September and October together had 16% more rented nights than August, and September alone almost as many as June. Italy, Portugal and Spain had the strongest autumn: there, the two months had 30% to 44% more nights than August. In Greece, October fell to half of September; in Croatia, to under a third.

Autumn bookings were smaller and shorter. Across the EU, each rented night in August carried 3.3 guests on average, and in September 2.7. Stays averaged 4.3 nights in August and 3.8 in September. These are averages across all platform-booked rentals, city flats included, worked out from Eurostat’s figures.

What the official numbers don’t show yet is a shift towards autumn. September and October held 18.7% of the EU’s rented nights in 2023 and 18.0% in 2025: both months grew, but slightly slower than the year as a whole.

What September 2026 showed

AirDNA, which tracks short-term rental listings in 42 European countries, published its September figures on 8 October. Occupancy held at 55.4%, against 55.3% a year earlier, and the average nightly rate rose 8.9% to €141.02. Booked nights fell 1.2% to 46.4 million. Spain accounted for 77% of the net fall: licensing rules have cut its supply, and its booked nights fell 8.1%. Without Spain, Europe was almost flat (−0.3%). Italy grew 3.5% and Croatia fell 11.4%.

Part of the rate rise was an easy comparison, since September 2025 rates had fallen 1.2%. Across Europe, a September day still had 18.3% fewer booked nights than an average summer day, at rates 10.6% lower. In ten city markets, led by Seville, Munich and Turin, September beat the summer outright; nine of the ten had summer highs averaging above 30°C.

On average, then, September 2026 was about as full as a year earlier, at higher prices. That is an average across a continent, not a forecast for any one house.

Early bookings are not results

Growth figures for the shoulder months often come from early bookings. CV Villas, a villa holiday specialist, reported that by October 2025 its bookings for 2026 were 20% ahead of the year before, with the strongest growth in June (+30%), September (+21%) and October (+30%).

In 2026, early bookings ran high all year. AirDNA found that six months before a stay month, nights on the books were about 19 points further ahead of the year before than the month finally finished: July looked 22.9% ahead six months out and ended 0.5% down. Its advice to hosts is not to raise rates on early pace alone until a month or two before the stay.

Guests did book earlier. For September stays, 25.0% of bookings were made more than three months ahead, up from 23.3%, and the average lead time rose from 62 to 68 days. Yet 25.1% of September check-ins were still booked within six days of arrival. An autumn listing needs to be ready early and to stay open late.

Why guests pick the shoulder months

In Virtuoso’s 2026 Luxe Report, a survey of more than 2,400 travel advisors, 45% said their clients were adjusting plans because of climate change. Of those advisors, 76% said clients were choosing shoulder-season or off-peak travel, and 75% saw a preference for destinations with moderate weather. AirDNA’s strongest September markets point the same way: cities with hot summers. CV Villas sums up the appeal of these months as warm seas, quieter beaches and a slower pace.

What to change on your listing

1. Add autumn to the gallery. If every photo shows high summer, the listing sells August. Add photos taken in September or October: the light, the terrace at dusk, the walks, the table outside. Put one in the first five. None yet? Plan the shoot for next September, and lead meanwhile with what holds all year: shade, interiors, the view.
2. Say what the pool and the house do in autumn. Villa guests filter for pools, and in October the next question is how warm the water is. Say whether yours is heated, from which month and at what cost, and whether the house is heated for cooler evenings.
3. Write what’s open, and what closes. Restaurants, beach clubs, boat trips and ferries often cut back after the season. Say what is open nearby in September and October and what isn’t, so guests know before they book.
4. Set autumn rates and stay rules on purpose. Price September and October from what those months actually earned last year, not from early pace. Across Europe, September 2026 rates rose 8.9% while occupancy held: an average across 42 countries, not a target for your house. Check, too, whether summer’s minimum stay still fits after the school holidays: across all platform-booked rentals in the EU, the average stay in September and October was under four nights.
5. Keep the calendar open late. A quarter of September check-ins were booked in the six days before arrival. Don’t block autumn weeks by default, and take short-notice bookings if you can turn the house around.
6. Give autumn its own place on your own page. Photos, rates, what’s open and how to book, in one section guests find when they plan a year ahead. What they check before booking direct is in our direct booking guide.

Sources

1. Eurostat, “Short-stay accommodation offered via online platforms by months, residence of the guest and NUTS 1 and NUTS 2 region” (tour_ce_omn12), 2023 to 2025, updated 2 October 2026. Guests per rented night and nights per stay are our calculation from it.
2. Eurostat, “Short-stay accommodation offered via online platforms”, reference metadata: platforms covered and definitions of stays, nights rented and guest nights.
3. AirDNA, “European Review September 2026: Europe Earns More From Fewer Nights”, 8 October 2026, updated 22 October 2026.
4. CV Villas, “2026 Holiday Trend Report”, bookings made up to October 2025.
5. Virtuoso, “2026 Virtuoso Luxe Report”, press release, 6 October 2025.

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